25.10.2023 USU Software AG  DE000A0BVU28

Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): Buy


Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG

Unternehmen: USU Software AG

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Preview
Empfehlung: Buy
seit: 25.10.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q3e: Sequential improvements as headwinds remain; chg.  
USU will report Q3 figures on 22 November, which are seen to show sequential improvements compared to the previous quarter, especially on the margin side. This comes despite ongoing headwinds in connection with longer sales cycles, particularly in the license business, which led to a weak Q2.
Sales are seen to increase 5.3% qoq to € 33.3m, implying a muted 2.0% yoy, which however comes against a strong comparable base. The continuously strong growth in SaaS (eNuW: +23% yoy to € 4.6m) as well as solidly growing consulting revenues (eNuW: +10% yoy to € 20.2m) look hereby set to only partly compensate for the ongoing decline in license sales (eNuW: -65% yoy to € 1.4m). On this basis, Q3 EBITDA is expected to come in at € 2.9m (-33% yoy), implying a margin of 8.8% (+2pp qoq). The yoy profitability decline is mainly explained by the combination of an increased cost base, mainly R&D in connection with AI projects, as well as the strong decline in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to consulting and SaaS revenues.  
Mind you, declining license sales and hence a short-term margin compression were already included in our estimates in consideration of the company’s mid-term strategy which is to significantly increase the share of SaaS sales to >75% until 2026. While perpetual license sales provide higher initial margins, the SaaS payments are seen to equal the one-time license payments (+ annual maintenance fees) after c. 3 years, thus allowing for a significant margin expansion as hardly any incremental costs are incurred. While 2024e should be a transition year, we expect the switch to SaaS to start paying off in 2025e with an EBITDA margin of +15%.  
That said, the company continues to look on track to reach its mid-term targets (until 2026e) of 10% organic sales CAGR, >25% SaaS CAGR and an EBITDA margin in the range of 17-19% thanks to the ongoing high pace of the SaaS transformation. On top of this, the continuous implementation of the “One USU” strategy, which among others aims for leaner Sales & Marketing structures, should further benefit profitability going forward.
As shares have been down heavily since the company warned in August, valuation appears ever more undemanding, trading at only 17.3x PE ‘24e, a clear discount to the 2-year forward-looking average of 25.1x.
BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27961.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG
Mittelweg 16-17
20148 Hamburg
[email protected]

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Die wichtigsten Finanzdaten auf einen Blick
  2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e
Umsatzerlöse1 84,36 90,49 95,63 107,33 111,90 126,52 132,08
EBITDA1,2 6,84 5,51 9,92 13,38 14,39 16,84 12,43
EBITDA-Marge3 8,11 6,09 10,37 12,47 12,86 13,31
EBIT1,4 3,22 2,71 4,05 7,02 9,67 11,80 7,62
EBIT-Marge5 3,82 2,99 4,24 6,54 8,64 9,33 5,77
Jahresüberschuss1 3,37 0,96 5,27 5,48 6,76 7,58 5,28
Netto-Marge6 3,99 1,06 5,51 5,11 6,04 5,99 4,00
Cashflow1,7 5,17 2,00 9,52 17,74 13,35 10,37 7,88
Ergebnis je Aktie8 0,32 0,09 0,50 0,52 0,64 0,72 0,50
Dividende8 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,50 0,55 0,40
Quelle: boersengefluester.de und Firmenangaben

  Geschäftsbericht 2023 - Kostenfrei herunterladen.  
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen; 3 EBITDA in Relation zum Umsatz; 4 EBIT = Ergebnis vor Zinsen und Steuern; 5 EBIT in Relation zum Umsatz; 6 Jahresüberschuss (-fehlbetrag) in Relation zum Umsatz; 7 Cashflow aus der gewöhnlichen Geschäftstätigkeit; 8 in Euro; Quelle: boersengefluester.de

Wirtschaftsprüfer: RSM Ebner Stolz

USU Software
WKN Kurs in € Einschätzung Börsenwert in Mio. €
A0BVU2 18,400 Halten 193,64
KGV 2025e KGV 10Y-Ø BGFL-Ratio Shiller-KGV
20,44 30,47 0,67 33,95
3,75 24,56 1,47 14,58
Dividende '22 in € Dividende '23e in € Div.-Rendite '23e
in %
0,55 0,55 2,99 02.07.2024
Q1-Zahlen Q2-Zahlen Q3-Zahlen Bilanz-PK
23.05.2024 29.08.2024 21.11.2024 28.03.2024
Abstand 60Tage-Linie Abstand 200Tage-Linie Performance YtD Performance 52 Wochen
3,42% 6,88% 9,20% -18,22%
Weitere Ad-hoc und Unternehmensrelevante Mitteilungen zu USU Software AG  ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 können Sie bei EQS abrufen

Software , A0BVU2 , OSP2 , XETR:OSP2