07.03.2024 USU Software AG  DE000A0BVU28

Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY


 

Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG

Company Name: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 30.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q4 preview: Sequential improvements following license recovery

Topic: USU Software is going to release its 2023 annual report on March 28th, which is seen to show further sequential improvements during Q4, partly driven by a recovery of the license sales as well as continuously growing SaaS sales.

Q4 sales are seen coming in at € 34.9m, implying a muted 4.0% yoy but showing further sequential improvements with 6.3% qoq. This should be driven among others by a recovery of the license revenues, which we expect to come in at € 3.1m thus accounting for almost half of the FY license sales (eNuW: € 6.5m) but still 30% down yoy. Mind you, that license revenues deteriorated in the first 9M of ’23 following prolonged sales cycles. Besides this, SaaS sales look set to show further strong growth of 20% yoy to € 4.6m. Overall, FY ’23 sales are seen at € 133m, hence meeting the lower end of the company’s guidance (€ 132-139m).

While growth remains muted, Q4 adj. EBITDA is expected at € 4.3m, indicating an improved margin of 12.4% vs Q3 (+3.9pp qoq). Again, the main driver behind this is seen to be the sequential increase in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to subscription-based SaaS revenues. Yet, FY adj. EBITDA is anticipated to amount to € 13.1m, thus reaching the lower end of the guidance (€ 13-15m) but also implying a margin decline by 3.4pp to 9.9%.

2024 another transition year. While sequential improvements should continue throughout 2024e, we still expect profitability to be slightly below the levels of ’21 & ’22 with an adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5%. This is mainly due to the ongoing SaaS transformation, where management aims for a >75% share of new customer business by FY ’26 and hence a consequent decline in license sales. While this will have an adverse short-term effect on profitability, margins are seen to strongly expand in mid-term (eNuW: 17.1% by FY ‘26e), as the annual subscription payments of the SaaS contracts should equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3 years.

Although another transition year is likely laying ahead, current valuation appears undemanding at 13x EV/EBIT ‘24e (vs historic avg. of 20x). Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 30 based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29087.pdf
For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.



Die wichtigsten Finanzdaten auf einen Blick
  2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e
Umsatzerlöse1 84,36 90,49 95,63 107,33 111,90 126,52 132,08
EBITDA1,2 6,84 5,51 9,92 13,38 14,39 16,84 12,43
EBITDA-Marge3 8,11 6,09 10,37 12,47 12,86 13,31
EBIT1,4 3,22 2,71 4,05 7,02 9,67 11,80 7,62
EBIT-Marge5 3,82 2,99 4,24 6,54 8,64 9,33 5,77
Jahresüberschuss1 3,37 0,96 5,27 5,48 6,76 7,58 5,28
Netto-Marge6 3,99 1,06 5,51 5,11 6,04 5,99 4,00
Cashflow1,7 5,17 2,00 9,52 17,74 13,35 10,37 7,88
Ergebnis je Aktie8 0,32 0,09 0,50 0,52 0,64 0,72 0,50
Dividende8 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,50 0,55 0,40
Quelle: boersengefluester.de und Firmenangaben

  Geschäftsbericht 2023 - Kostenfrei herunterladen.  
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen; 3 EBITDA in Relation zum Umsatz; 4 EBIT = Ergebnis vor Zinsen und Steuern; 5 EBIT in Relation zum Umsatz; 6 Jahresüberschuss (-fehlbetrag) in Relation zum Umsatz; 7 Cashflow aus der gewöhnlichen Geschäftstätigkeit; 8 in Euro; Quelle: boersengefluester.de

Wirtschaftsprüfer: RSM Ebner Stolz

INVESTOR-INFORMATIONEN
©boersengefluester.de
USU Software
WKN Kurs in € Einschätzung Börsenwert in Mio. €
A0BVU2 18,400 Halten 193,64
KGV 2025e KGV 10Y-Ø BGFL-Ratio Shiller-KGV
20,44 30,47 0,67 33,95
KBV KCV KUV EV/EBITDA
3,75 24,56 1,47 14,58
Dividende '22 in € Dividende '23e in € Div.-Rendite '23e
in %
Hauptversammlung
0,55 0,55 2,99 02.07.2024
Q1-Zahlen Q2-Zahlen Q3-Zahlen Bilanz-PK
23.05.2024 29.08.2024 21.11.2024 28.03.2024
Abstand 60Tage-Linie Abstand 200Tage-Linie Performance YtD Performance 52 Wochen
4,46% 6,97% 9,20% -30,04%
    
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Software , A0BVU2 , OSP2 , XETR:OSP2