10.04.2024 ZEAL Network SE  DE000ZEAL241

Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): Kaufen


Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 10.04.2024
Target price: EUR 51.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Games business – a second EBITDA accelerator?

Following recent additions to the Games portfolio, we take this opportunity for another deep dive into the new Games business, highlighting the favourable business metrics and showing its enormous potential for ZEAL, once scaled. Here’s our take:

User metrics exceed those of lottery by far: thanks to the repetitive character of Games, the customer journey gives ZEAL much more monetization opportunities, as users can play 24/7 and for mutliple times a day vs. 1-3 days Lottery players need to wait for the next jackpot draw. This is reflected at much higher ARPU (average revenues per user) of currently € 25.82 at Games vs. only € 7.68 at Lottery.

Change in Games KPIs ahead: While the business is still in roll-out, ZEAL is about to add higher billings margin Games to the now 59 games counting portfolio. Hence, we expect changing KPIs as billings margins directly influence the pay-in to billings ratio, the pay-in margin and ultimately ARPU.

Finding the sweet spot: maximizing the ARPU at Games should be one of ZEAL's main target. As it controls the average billings margin (i.e., by changing the Games product mix), it can experiment to some extent, as higher billings margins reduce RTP and thus user activity. By finding the optimal billings margin, the pay-in margin and thus ARPU can be maximized.

Conservative estimates already show promising bottom line effects: According to our current estimates, the new business should account for 12% of group EBITDA in '24 (€ 5m) and for 17% of group EBITDA by FY'26e (€ 11m), based on conservative user growth assumptions (40k by FY'26 vs. 17k in FY'23) and only slight EBITDA margin improvements (50% in FY'26e vs. 42% in FY'23).

Huge potential, once scaled: To asses the impact of the Games business once meaningful user numbers are reached, our sensitiviy analysis shows the enormous potential stemming from Games: Asuming 200k MAUs, an ARPU of € 30 and a 50% EBITDA margin, the annually recurring EBITDA contribution from Games alone could amount to € 36m (vs. € 33m on group level in '23).

In sum, the Games business has the potential to become a significant second pillar of growth and profitability for ZEAL. Hence, we confirm ZEAL's position in the NuWays' AlphaList and reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchangend PT of € 51.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

Die wichtigsten Finanzdaten auf einen Blick
  2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e
Umsatzerlöse1 134,30 154,75 113,48 87,02 83,33 105,20 116,05
EBITDA1,2 26,44 38,31 17,91 17,33 27,73 31,66 32,91
EBITDA-Marge3 19,69 24,76 15,78 19,91 33,28 30,10
EBIT1,4 25,18 38,31 9,07 5,38 19,05 22,93 23,65
EBIT-Marge5 18,75 24,76 7,99 6,18 22,86 21,80 20,38
Jahresüberschuss1 17,18 26,66 1,72 7,89 11,40 16,57 13,72
Netto-Marge6 12,79 17,23 1,52 9,07 13,68 15,75 11,82
Cashflow1,7 13,41 38,20 5,30 5,37 26,16 28,49 25,57
Ergebnis je Aktie8 2,05 3,18 0,09 0,37 0,48 0,72 0,59
Dividende8 1,00 1,00 0,80 0,90 2,10 3,60 1,00
Quelle: boersengefluester.de und Firmenangaben

  Geschäftsbericht 2023 - Kostenfrei herunterladen.  
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen; 3 EBITDA in Relation zum Umsatz; 4 EBIT = Ergebnis vor Zinsen und Steuern; 5 EBIT in Relation zum Umsatz; 6 Jahresüberschuss (-fehlbetrag) in Relation zum Umsatz; 7 Cashflow aus der gewöhnlichen Geschäftstätigkeit; 8 in Euro; Quelle: boersengefluester.de

Wirtschaftsprüfer: Ernst & Young

ZEAL Network
WKN Kurs in € Einschätzung Börsenwert in Mio. €
ZEAL24 35,800 Halten 801,78
KGV 2025e KGV 10Y-Ø BGFL-Ratio Shiller-KGV
31,40 21,74 1,44 37,45
3,41 31,36 6,91 23,31
Dividende '22 in € Dividende '23e in € Div.-Rendite '23e
in %
3,60 1,10 3,07 28.05.2024
Q1-Zahlen Q2-Zahlen Q3-Zahlen Bilanz-PK
08.05.2024 07.08.2024 06.11.2024 20.03.2024
Abstand 60Tage-Linie Abstand 200Tage-Linie Performance YtD Performance 52 Wochen
9,17% 12,09% 7,51% 4,37%
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